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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.